Friday, May 15, 2009

Fed Forecast -- 3rd Qtr Turnaround

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve released its Second Quarter 2009 Survey of Professional Forecasters today, and the consensus forecasts for quarterly real GDP through 2010:Q2 are displayed below. The consensus forecast is for negative output growth to continue in the second quarter (-1.5%) of 2009 before turning positive in Q3 (.40%) and Q4 (1.7%), continuing into 2010 with growth of 2.2% and 2.9% in the first two quarters.
HT to Mark Perry for the graph.

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